NFL Totals Odds Report: Games Still Going ‘Under’ Halfway Through 2022
A Handful of Teams Responsible for This Trend
Nearly 60 Percent of NFL Games Still Going Under
Ten weeks and 148 NFL games into the 2022 season and one trend are still going strong: totals keep going ‘under’. As of this Thursday morning, 58.8 percent of NFL totals odds (87 of 148 games) have gone under.
What’s more interesting is that of the 10 overtime games so far, six still went below the totals. There are a variety of reasons to explain this. But pointing the finger at a handful of teams is one way to look at it.
Which Teams Keep Going Under…
Of the 32 NFL teams, 21 have had more games go under through 10 weeks. That means that a bettor would be on the winning side if they bet on all of these teams’ NFL totals odds to go under. In particular, six teams have had at least three-quarters of their games trend this way:
| Team | oDDS |
|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 1-8-0 (88.9 percent) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-8-0 (80 percent) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-8-0 (80 percent) |
| Tennessee Titans | 2-7-0 (77.8 percent) |
| Buffalo Bills | 2-7-0 (77.8 percent) |
| New York Giants | 2-7-0 (77.8 percent) |
These six teams have a lot in common. It starts on defense. Five of the six teams here are ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense. Indianapolis is ranked 11th. Denver (16.6), Buffalo (16.8), and Tampa Bay (18.0) have the three best defenses while Indianapolis is the only team that allows opponents to score over 20 points a game.
Now comes the other side of the ball: offense. Five of the six teams here are also in the bottom 10 of the NFL in scoring offense. The only team that isn’t, Buffalo, is averaging the second-most points per game (27.8).
Denver, in particular, is both the best defensive team and the worst offensive team (14.6). Broncos games have an average total of 31.2 points. This is just 1.2 points more than Kansas City averages on offense (30) alone.The Broncos find ways to keep games even lower scoring than what the weekly NFL totals odds have posted.
In Week 10, they and the Titans scored 27 total points, 12.5 lower than the 39.5 total. In Week 7, the Broncos and Jets combined for 25 points. The total was 37, which was already the lowest for the week. As for Buffalo, all of their road games have gone under the total. This is due to their scoring offense dipping to 22.8 points per game versus 34 at home.
Denver, on the other hand, has seen all four home games go under (along with Jacksonville). The Broncos average a measly 11.25 points at the Mile High Stadium.
Teams That are Going Against the Trend…
In contrast, there are still seven teams that have had more games go over. These teams have had high-scoring games on the NFL odds and are the:
| Team | oDDS |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 6-2-1 (75 percent) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6-3-0 (66.7 percent) |
| Detroit Lions | 6-3-0 (66.7 percent) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5-3-1 (62.5 percent) |
| Chicago Bears | 6-4-0 (60 percent) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5-4-1 (55.6 percent) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5-4-0 (55.6 percent) |
On offense, these teams don’t have as much in common as the six teams mentioned earlier. You have Philadelphia (27.3), Minnesota (25.1), Detroit (24.3), and Cleveland (24.1) as top 10 offenses while the rest are everywhere else in the NFL standings.
Chicago, Cleveland, and Philadelphia are three of the six best rushing teams in the NFL but defensively, five of the seven teams here are among the NFL’s worst.
In fact, Detroit (29.3), Cleveland (26.4), Arizona (25.8), and Las Vegas (25.1) constitute four of the five worst-scoring defenses in the NFL. Chicago, in particular, has allowed an average of 38.3 points in their last three games. They became the first team to go 0-3 despite scoring 29 or more points.
The average total for Chicago’s games here has been a whopping 68.7. It’s not surprising that the NFL Week 11 odds have its game against Atlanta as the highest total at 50 (tied with Chiefs-Chargers). Cleveland and Las Vegas have also seen all of their home games go over the total.
Follow us on TwitterThe Browns have scored 28 or more points in four of their five home games. The one game they did not score that many, they allowed the Patriots to score 38 points. The Raiders, on the other hand, typically have shootouts at home. Since 2020, the Raiders’ home games have gone ‘over’ 75 percent of the time (15-5-1)
