2024 NFL Season: Lamar Jackson Statistical Odds Breakdown
Can The Two-Time MVP Stay This Dominant?
- The list of multiple-time NFL MVP award winners is small, and only the best of the best in league history — from Peyton Manning to Tom Brady to Jim Brown to Joe Montana — are among the 11 names.
The latest addition is Lamar Jackson who was the 2023 MVP following another incredible season both as a er and a runner. The question now is if he can the even-more-elite club of three-time winners, consisting of just six guys.
- The 2024 Lamar Jackson season odds think he has a shot, even if there are other worthy contenders
Jackson threw for a career-high 3,678 yards as well, and while he didn’t match the touchdown and interception marks he posted in his incredible 2019 campaign, he still had 24 touchdown es compared to just seven picks.
- He managed to be one of the best NFL quarterbacks through the air, and then you add his 821 rushing yards (and league-best 5.5 yards per carry) on top of that, and it makes sense why he won MVP.
But, the question for him is if he’ll be able to replicate that performance in 2024. He was good, yet far from dominant, in 2020 after winning his first MVP and his numbers in 2021 and 2022 were decidedly less impressive as he battled through some NFL injuries.
By all s, he’s healthy now and with Derrick Henry as a big improvement in the backfield, Jackson could have an even bigger season with a more prolific offense.
Let’s see what Vegas thinks of his year:
Offensive Player of the Year: +3300 / MVP: +1400
- So the 2024 Lamar Jackson season odds don’t necessarily expect Jackson to repeat as MVP or win the AP Offensive Player of the Year for the first time — he was fourth in voting last year and second in 2019 — but he has a decent shot.
There are only four guys with better MVP odds than him and they’re all elite quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and CJ Stroud. Well, maybe Stroud being above Jackson is a stretch.
It’s very hard to win back-to-back MVPs, it has only been done five times in NFL history. Offensive Player of the Year could be tough for Jackson to manage as well given that a quarterback hasn’t won the award since Mahomes did in 2018.
Even if Jackson has another enormous campaign, voter fatigue could be what does him in. MVP is definitely more feasible, however, so Jackson at +1400 is a worthy risk to take. The OPOY could be out of reach.
Which QB would you rather have on your team for the next 5 years?
REPOST: Josh Allen
LIKE: Lamar Jackson pic.twitter.com/2gt9DVy8Vo— LeatherBrainz (@leatherbrainz) July 11, 2024
3,275.5 ing Yards: Over (-115)/Under (-115)
- If you’re making NFL picks, the over on Jackson’s ing yards is a smart take at -115. He blew past 3,276 yards last season and even if he misses a game or two due to injury, he should have enough cushion to reach the over.
He’s a much more disciplined er than he has been in the past and threw a career-high 475 attempts in 2023. Considering how effective he was, there’s no reason to think John Harbaugh is going to scale things back in 2024.
The only hold-up here is the inclusion of Henry into the offense. He isn’t the runner he was in 2022 and earlier but he is still is one of the better backs in the game and has led the league in carries four of the past five seasons.
Baltimore will lean on him a lot. The question is if that will significantly cut into how much Jackson will be asked to drop back and .
700.5 Rushing Yards: Over (-115)/Under (-115)
- The 2024 Lamar Jackson season odds have been affected the most by the Henry g in of Jackson’s expected rushing yards. He has rushed for more than 700 yards in each of his past five seasons after notching 695 yards on the ground in his rookie season.
The downward correction in his over/under total seems to be directly related to concerns that Henry will limit how much Jackson decides to tuck it and run.
On one hand, that makes sense because Henry will command a lot of carries so more plays that were previously designed to be Jackson runs could be Henry runs now.
But, Jackson does a lot of his damage when he decides to scamper on ing plays where no receivers are open. These “emergency” runs should continue and result in a lot of his ground yardage. The over is smart.
22.5 ing Touchdowns: Over (-115)/Under (-115)
- Here is where the under is a good bet. Jackson only had 24 ing touchdowns last season despite playing 16 games and ing the ball more than he has in any season.
He also now has an elite short-yardage back in Henry who could vulture a bunch of red zone touchdown opportunities.
Touchdowns are notoriously fickle and fluctuate from year-to-year but this is a situation where you can easily see Jackson still have a great season but do so with fewer ing touchdowns just based on the circumstances.
5.5 Rushing Touchdowns: Over (Even)/Under (-130)
- The Ravens’ 2024 NFL season schedule is among the hardest in football so Baltimore will be facing plenty of tough opponents.
So, him getting six rushing touchdowns might be tough both considering the strength of schedule and that Jackson hasn’t gotten to that figure since 2020 when he ran for over 1,000 yards.
The great value on the over is enticing but based on his trends and the Henry vulture possibility, the under at -130 may be the right move.
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