2024 College Football Season: USC Stats and Odds

Trojans Could Face Tough Transition To Big Ten

The Trojans' strong offense was undermined by their poor defense, resulting in an 8-5 record.
In 2023, USC was favored to win the Pac-12 but ended up tied for fourth place.
Miller Moss is listed at +4000 and Maiava, a UNLV transfer, at +6500.

July 30, 2024 185 4 minutes readNCAAF Picks & Parlays

Life without Caleb Williams is going to take getting used to for Lincoln Riley’s USC team and its fanbase. Through the ups and downs of the 2023 season — their final campaign in the Pac-12 — the Trojans always had their elite quarterback to lead the way even though he wasn’t nearly as proficient as he was during his 2022 Heisman campaign.

But, Williams couldn’t do it all himself and the Trojans fell apart once they started playing tougher college football teams in October and November, turning the season into a very disappointing one. The 2024 USC Trojans stats indicate that this year may not be any easier as they transition into the loaded Big Ten.

USC Trojans At A Glance

Odds to Win	Opening Odds	Current Odds
Championship	+3300	+6000
Conference	+2400	+2200
Regular Season Win Total	7.5 (o+100, u-122)	7.5 (o-105, u-125)
To Make Playoffs	Yes +400, No -600	Yes +400, No -600

How Will West Coast Football Translate To Midwest?

USC had a tough enough time of it in 2023 with Caleb Williams and a host of quality skill-position guys at wide receiver and running back. Now, the Trojans will try to make the 2024 college football playoffs with a new quarterback (Miller Moss or Jayden Maiava) and tons of new faces in the backfield and on the outside.

Williams, leading receivers Tahj Washington and NFL now leaving some inexperienced young guys and a few transfers to try and fill their places.

With that group, the Trojans were third in the country in scoring with 41.8 points per game. However, they finished 8-5, under their 9.5-win total projection, because of how bad the defense was. USC allowed nearly 35 points per game, giving them the 13th-worst scoring defense in the FBS.

Former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was fired in the middle of the season and former NFL assistant — and 2023 UCLA defensive coordinator — D’Anton Lynn is the new coach tasked with fixing one of the worst Power-Five units from a year ago.

While the Big Ten isn’t known for high-scoring flashy offenses, Lynn will have his hands full as he tries to transition this group from the free-flowing, -heavy Pac-12 to the more physical, Big Ten where some programs — like Iowa, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State — rely heavily on their running games behind elite offensive lines. Playing that style could be really hard for USC and may turn the 2024 USC Trojans stats ugly.

USC Isn’t Back To Title Contention Just Yet

The Trojans were +1600 to win the National Championship last college football season and wound up falling extremely short, playing in the mid-tier Holiday Bowl after a brutal 1-5 stretch in the middle of the year.

Now, those college football odds are even longer, as low as +6000.

The unfortunate truth of the matter for Lincoln Riley is that he kind of has to start over after building around Caleb Williams.

Now, he has the added difficulty of going into college football’s second-best conference and competing with defending champion Michigan, perennial power Ohio State and other elite teams like Oregon and Penn State. Even Iowa, Wisconsin and Washington are far from push-overs.

USC could return to that playoff-level of contention soon but there’s a long way to go until the Trojans are ready to be in that mix.

Big Ten Would Be Tough For USC To Finish At Top Of

Prior to last season, USC was the odds-on favorite to win the Pac-12 in its final year of football competition at +200. Of course, things didn’t turn out that well for the Trojans as they finished in a tie for fourth place with Oregon State and Utah.

Now, USC is +2400 to win the Big Ten so unless the 2024 college football scores greatly diverge from what the expectations are, it could be awhile before USC hoists a conference championship trophy for its new conference.

USC’s Schedule Is Tough

USC’s relatively low win total expectation (7.5 victories) feels too small for a USC team but, with all things considered, it’s a fair number. The Trojans’ schedule is a brutal one.

They open up with LSU and host perennial bowl team Utah State before beginning Big Ten play, which includes NCAAF games against Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and Washington before wrapping up the year with Notre Dame.

It’s not going to be an easy ride so getting to eight wins — even with a potential bowl game — is a steep climb. It would take a miracle to eclipse last season’s 9.5-win preseason projection.

Playoffs Are Pipe Dream for USC

The 2024 USC football stats would have to be nothing short of incredible for the Trojans to make the College Football Playoff.

USC was only +250 to do so last season (-340 to miss) and those odds have, understandably, slipped by a lot to +400.

It’s still on the table because of how good the Big Ten is but with USC having so many question marks on offense and needing to fix a broken defense, don’t count on it.

Maiava Could Have Big Year

While USC’s quarterback race is still undecided, the Trojans do have two signal-callers who the NCAAF picks and parlays are thinking of as possible Heisman Trophy winners.

Both Moss and Maiava (he a UNLV transfer) are on the board with Moss at +4000 and Maiava at +6500.

It’s tough to take either one considering that it’s unclear who is going to be the starter but once a winner is announced, that’s interesting value considering how good Riley is at developing top-of-the-line quarterbacks.

Another interesting bet is USC to win over 5.5 conference games (-105).

While the Trojans’ schedule is rough, they certainly can win six Big Ten games as they play beatable teams in Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland, Rutgers and UCLA. It seems more likely that USC wins six conference games than it goes 3-0 in its non-conference slate.

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