Brewers vs Reds Betting Matchup: Rivals Neck-and-Neck Atop NL Central
Reds Hold 1.0-game Lead in Division Coming Out of All-Star break
The Cincinnati Reds were one of baseball’s most pleasant surprises of the first half. Thanks to an influx of rookie talent, the Reds hold a slim lead over the rival Milwaukee Brewers atop the National League Central. Can they hold on? The Brewers are a -117 favorite to win outright in Friday’s series opener at Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark. The Reds are +107. The projected total is 10.5 +100/-120. Let’s break down the odds in our Brewers vs Reds betting matchup preview.
Reds Defying the Odds
The Cincinnati Reds rolled into the All-Star break at 50-41, 1.0 game ahead of Milwaukee atop the NL Central. Few, if anyone, expected them to be in this position. Case in point: Cincinnati was a +6600 longshot to win the division in spring training. Those odds have since skyrocketed to +125. The Reds are also even money to make the playoffs, which, again, seemed almost inconceivable on Opening Day.
Cincinnati has won seven of 10 and is 24-12 since the start of June. The Reds don’t appear to be slowing down either, in large part because of rookie sensations Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Andrew Abbott. De La Cruz, MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 overall prospect, is batting .325 with four homers, 16 RBI and an .887 OPS over his first 126 at-bats.
He’s also stolen 16 bases. The 21-year-old shortstop now holds the second-best odds for NL Rookie of the Year at +170, behind Arizona outfielder Corbin Carroll (-250). McClain has made a similar impact, hitting .300 with seven homers and 29 RBI. Meanwhile, Abbott, who will start the middle game of this Brewers vs Reds betting matchup, is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his first seven starts.
The Reds currently rank fifth in runs, ninth in OPS and 10th in average. They’re still just 19th in homers despite playing in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks. However, that should improve thanks to the aforementioned additions from the minors.
Brewers Sticking Close
Although Milwaukee currently trails in theMLB World Series.
The Brewers have played reasonably well of late. They’re 10-5 over their last 15 games. Notably, they took two of three from Cincinnati before the All-Star break to improve to 5-2 overall against the Reds this season.
Outfielder Christian Yelich has had a big hand in Milwaukee’s resurgence. The former NL MVP is hitting .284 with 11 home runs, 46 RBI and a team-high .833 OPS. He’s also swiped 21 bags, ninth-most in baseball.
Milwaukee is just 22nd in runs scored and 26th in average. However, it logged the 12th-best ERA in June. Opponents hit only .226 against Brewers pitching that month, fourth-lowest in baseball.
Odds Outlook
With a 58-33 record against the MLB run line, Cincinnati has been the most profitable team for bettors. That includes a 26-18 mark ATS at home, second to only Texas (27-18). Conversely, Milwaukee is just 42-49 ATS, including 22-22 on the road.
Cincinnati also has the second-best record against the Over at 53-38.
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Graham Ashcraft vs Corbin Burnes
Ashcraft has a 6.28 ERA across 16 starts and was tattooed in his last appearance against Milwaukee. The right-hander allowed 10 runs on nine hits over four innings in a 10-8 loss on June 3. He’s given up 13 home runs in just 81.2 innings.
He will oppose Burnes, who is 7-5 with a 3.94 ERA. The former NL Cy Young winner limited Cincinnati to two runs over six innings in a 7-3 victory last Friday, his final appearance before the All-Star break.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Andrew Abbott vs Freddy Peralta
Abbott beat Milwaukee in his Major League debut, tossing six shutout innings on June 5. The rookie left-hander then suffered his first loss against the Brewers last Friday, allowing six runs over 4.1 frames. He’s held lefties to a .161 average.
Peralta is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA. He matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts in his last start, a 6-5 victory over the Cubs on July 6.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Ben Lively vs Adrian Ho
Lively returned from the injured list last Sunday against Milwaukee to throw 5.2 innings of one-run ball in a 1-0 loss. He also lost to Milwaukee on June 4, giving up five runs over seven innings. For the season, the right-hander is 4-5 with a 3.83 ERA.
The Brewers will counter with Ho, who is 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA. Ho held the Reds to one run over seven innings in a 5-1 victory on June 4.
For Brewers vs Reds betting matchup odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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