2023 MLB MVP Odds: NL MVP Odds Update

Don't Sleep On Mookie

September 1, 2023 1,273 4 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

2023 MLB MVP Odds: NL MVP Odds Update — Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images/AFP

For most of the 2023 MLB regular season, it felt like Ronald Acuña Jr. would run away with the National League MVP race — just like his American League counterpart, Shohei Ohtani, likely has. With Acuña’s Braves essentially dominating the NL from Day 1 of the season, led by his historic offensive campaign, Acuña taking home the hardware felt like a foregone conclusion. For the most part, the 2023 MLB MVP odds agreed that he was the most deserving candidate.

Then, August began, and the MLB division standings — went supernova. In August, Betts had arguably the best offensive month in baseball history. He slashed .455/.516/.839 with 11 home runs and 30 RBIs.

His absurd monthly hit total (51) smashed the Dodgers’ club records. Somehow, Betts’ insane output managed to eclipse the fact that Acuña just became the first member of the 30-60 club in MLB history, with the 30 being home runs in a season and the 60 being stolen bases.

To put in perspective how impressive his month was, Betts became just the third player since 1900 to have a .450+ batting average, 50+ hits, and 10+ home runs in a month. The other two? Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Not too bad.

When you do what Betts did in August while his team went 24-5 to creep within five games of Atlanta for the best record in the NL, you can flip the entire narrative of the MVP race. Betts’ performance in the last game of August against Acuña’s Braves firmly established that he can make a late-season push.

Despite the Dodgers losing 8-7 to Atlanta in a crazy night in Los Angeles, Betts hit a pair of home runs (one that Acuña nearly robbed) to overshadow the grand slam Acuña hit earlier in the game. It was an MVP-level performance.

Three weeks ago, the 2023 MLB MVP odds had Acuña at -1000 to win the NL MVP and Betts at +4000. The books viewed it as Acuña’s award to lose and didn’t even have Betts’ teammate, Freddie Freeman, on the board despite him also having a career season.

Now, Acuña is at -140, Betts is even-money, and Freeman is at +2500. Acuña’s teammate, Matt Olson, is also on the board at +10000. It shows just how strong this MVP race is that the guy leading MLB in home runs on the best team in the Majors is a distant fourth place in MVP odds.

It’s not a toss-up, but getting Betts at even money is one of the better MLB free picks out there. Of course, it would be nearly impossible for him to match his August performance in September but, with Betts, it would be silly to underestimate what he can do.

In order to beat out Acuña, though, he’ll probably need to get to around 45 home runs or so and continue to lead the NL in slugging percentage and OPS. He won’t catch Acuña in steals or batting average — in all likelihood — but could reach him in on-base percentage because he is behind by only a few percentage points.

Where Betts really has an advantage, and whether this plays a big role in the race ultimately depends on how much influence it’s given by MVP voters, is on the defensive side of things. Even though the Dodgers have had him play a good chunk of the season at second base and shortstop — positions he had only played a handful of times in the Majors before this season — instead of at his natural right field, Betts has been an above-replacement-level defender. At the same time, Acuña has been below-replacement-level in right field.

The 2023 MLB MVP odds seem to not have taken Betts’ and Acuña’s relatively defensive impacts — or advanced stats like WAR — into much . Betts has a 1.1 WAR advantage (7.8 to 6.7) over Acuña both at Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, in large part due to Betts’ defensive prowess and versatility. It’s still going to be hard for Betts to be the come-from-behind candidate considering how Acuña basically had a four-month headstart.

So, in of betting, it’s worthwhile to grab Betts at even money with the understanding that he could become the favorite if he continues to play this well over the next few weeks. At this point, it feels like Betts has the momentum and whether he wins or not depends more on his play than on the play of Acuña, who has been extraordinarily steady.

If Betts closes the season on a legitimate two-month heater, there’s nothing Acuña could realistically do to hold on. That’s why this should be such a fascinating down-to-the-wire MVP race, similarly to what the 2022 AL MVP battle looked like between Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. For that reason, the smart play is to take the value because it’s probably a closer race than the odds currently indicate.

For Point Spreads Sports Magazine.