2023 MLB AL & NL Pennant/World Series Odds Update

Braves Still Lead The Pack

October 6, 2023 619 5 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

2023 MLB AL & NL Pennant/World Series Odds Update — TODD KIRKLAND / GETTY IMAGES

After a pretty uneventful MLB Wild Card Round — all four series were two-game sweeps — the 2023 MLB postseason heads into the Division Series this weekend. Each series begins on Saturday, making for an incredible full day of baseball. Still, the Houston Astros (+175 and +450) are the American League favorites.

Atlanta will seek revenge against the divisional rival Philadelphia Phillies, who took down the Braves in four games in last year’s NLDS and dismantled the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card Round this week. The other top team in the NL — the MLB lines are very comfortably in Atlanta’s and Los Angeles’ favor for the NLDS.

In the AL, the upstart Minnesota Twins team that, all of a sudden, looks pretty formidable after a so-so regular season.

Let’s dive into each series a little more with a look at some special lines to keep in mind:

While the 2023 MLB AL & NL pennant odds are expecting the Braves to break through against the Phillies, there is significant reason to believe this could be a very close series. While Atlanta put together one of the best offensive seasons in MLB history and has a deep rotation and bullpen, Philadelphia boasts one of the game’s most reliable starters in Zack Wheeler and an incredibly talented lineup that seems to be clicking just at the right time.

These teams know each other very well, and the Braves will surely have some extra motivation after being eliminated by the Phillies in 2022. So, based on the odds, the likeliest series result is that the Braves will win 3-2 (+325). It helps that they have home field, the advantage of rest, and their top three starters lined up. In a short series, though, anything can happen, and as the Phillies demonstrated last year, they just might be a team perfectly built for the postseason. Philadelphia is +350 to win the pennant and +800 to take home the Commissioner’s Trophy.

It’ll be fascinating to see how the Dodgers can piece together their injury-laden starting rotation against the MLB standings in the NL West. Clayton Kershaw, who had a great season overall but missed all of July and part of August with a shoulder injury, will get the nod in Game 1, followed by impressive rookie Bobby Miller and deadline pickup Lance Lynn.

Typically, Los Angeles can find a way through most kinds of adversity, largely due to a loaded lineup led by Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Arizona finished 16 games behind the Dodgers in the division, but the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is strong, and they have a ton of team speed, which has played up with MLB’s new rules. Look for them to push the boundaries on the basepaths to get an edge. Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are a solid one-two punch at the top of the Arizona rotation, yet it would be a pretty big upset if the Diamondbacks were to advance (+650 to win the pennant and +1600 to win it all) past mighty LA.

This one might be the most intriguing series in the Division Round in of parity between the teams and general roster construction. Baltimore (+275 to win the pennant and +700 to win the MLB stats leaders in various categories for many years to come, especially on the offensive side of things.

They’ll take on the Texas Rangers (+300 and +900) whose free agency splurges the last two seasons — and a big deadline splash with the acquisition of Max Scherzer — have turned an also-ran into a serious contender. Texas, like Baltimore, has also been buoyed by the arrivals of big-hitting prospects, notably Josh Jung (who had a tremendous first full season in the Majors) and Evan Carter (who came up in September and had a 1.058 OPS in 23 games).

The key areas to watch are the Orioles’ rotation and the Rangers‘ bullpen. Both teams can produce runs in spades, but they have definite weaknesses in their respective pitching staffs. So, it’s not a surprise that the odds have this series as a tossup with the slight edge to Baltimore because the Orioles have their rotation lined up well while the Rangers are forced to start No. 3 starter Dane Dunning in Game 1. That could make a big difference in such a close f.

After the Minnesota Twins nearly shut out the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, the Houston Astros’ job looks a bit tougher now than it was before the playoffs started. Houston “snuck” into the postseason by barely winning the AL West over the Rangers and Seattle Mariners, while the Twins easily won the weak AL Central before holding Toronto to one total run in two games to snap their long postseason win drought.

The 2023 MLB AL & NL pennant odds like the Astros (+175 to win the pennant and +450 to win the World Series) to continue their playoff dominance behind Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, who will take the mound in Games 1 and 2. It was an up-and-down season for Houston because of key injuries to guys like Jose Altuvé, Kyle Tucker having completed his ascent into full-blown stardom, this is a very deep lineup to contend with.

The good thing for the Twins (+350 and +1000) is that their strength is starting pitching. Between Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Sonny Gray, they have one of the best tandems in the playoff field, not to mention one of the best closers in baseball in Jhoan Duran. The question is whether Minnesota’s inconsistent lineup can produce enough offense against Houston’s stellar staff. In a telling stat, no Twins had more than 66 RBIs this season, but 12 Twins had 40 RBIs or more. That shows how Minnesota has a lot of offensive versatility to play around with but doesn’t necessarily have the one reliable star who has pushed runs across from the beginning of the season. Can Carlos Correa regain his pre-injury form to do so? He could be the X-factor.

For Point Spreads Sports Magazine.